ESPCI web site
PMMH’s weekly seminar is held every Friday at 11 am (map)
Stéphane Perrard
Etienne Reyssat
Virgile Thiévenaz
PMMH
BARRE CASSAN
BAT A 1ER ETAGE CASE 18
7 QUAI SAINT BERNARD
75005 PARIS
France
Tel : (33) 1 40 79 45 22
Séminaire PMMH - Alexis Mérigaud - IFPEN
Predicting ocean waves in real-time
Ocean waves are usually predicted in a meteorological sense, from hourly to weekly time scales. In this talk, we cover the much lesser-known topic of real-time ocean wave forecasting, which consists in predicting accurately the second-by-second motion of the sea surface, a ship or another floating structure, up to a few minutes in advance. Such real-time forecasts would be highly desirable to mitigate risks and costs, associated with the commissioning and maintenance of marine renewable energy systems.
We will first focus on ocean wave predictability : Given available observations of the sea surface, where, and when can the wave motion be predicted accurately ? We will show that the commonly employed model for “deterministic” prediction zones is unreasonably optimistic for realistic wave fields. Instead, a classical Gaussian wave field representation allows the rigorous calculation of “probabilistic” prediction zones, defined with respect to a given uncertainty criterion. Those prediction zones can have relatively simple physical interpretation. We then show experimental evidence of the validity of our wave predictability model.
Real-time wave forecasting implies that waves are also measured in real time and, as we will see, over large distances around the point of interest, which represents another scientific and technical challenge. We will thus briefly describe ongoing experimental and numerical work at IFP Energies Nouvelles, on remote wave measurements using sensors such as LiDARs and X-band marine radars.
The audience is composed of people with rather heterogeneous backgrounds including specialists in solids, fluids, granular flows, statistical physics... so the idea is to keep your talk understandable by people not necessarily working in your field... The seminar time slot runs from 11am to noon so the best is to make the talk last around 45 minutes to leave some time for discussion.
- Séminaires ESPCI-ENS de biophysique
- Séminaires du Département de Physique de l’ENS
- Séminaires du Laboratoire d’Hydrodynamique de l’X
- Séminaire de Mécanique d’Orsay (page web FAST)
- Séminaire de Mécanique d’Orsay (page web LIMSI)
- Séminaire de Mécanique des Fluides de l’Institut Jean le Rond d’Alembert
- Séminaires du laboratoire MSC, Paris VII
- Séminaires Gulliver
Link to cofee seminar (internal, every Thursday)
